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美元貶過頭？美銀：美元指數醞釀反彈，82.41是關鍵

Aug 8th 2013, 21:06

精實新聞 2013-08-09 04:35:59 記者陳瑞哲報導

自美聯準會(FED)主席柏南克6月發表寬鬆宣言以來，美元兌歐元、英鎊等各主要國際貨幣持續走軟，迄今美元指數已跌落至6月中以來新低，外匯交易員認為美元的超貶可能醞釀新一波反彈氣勢。

追蹤美元兌歐元、日圓、英鎊、瑞郎、加元和瑞典克朗等6種國際貨幣的美元指數報80.963，較7月9日時的波段高點84.753下跌4.5%。不過，美銀指出，美元跌勢近期已趨緩，而交易型態顯示，若指數回升至82.41的壓力區將確定反彈勢成，屆時美元有望進一步走高。

撇開FED對美元影響的因素不談，美國經濟其實已透露轉強訊號，據彭博社調查79位經濟學家預估，美國明年經濟成長率將加速至2.7%，優於其它10國集團(G10)的平均1.9%，這是支撐美元走強的有利因素。

另外，一年期美元兌歐元的風險逆轉利率(Risk Reversal Rate)報1.78%，高於今年迄今平均水平的1.59%，顯示期權交易者看多美元後勢發展。

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